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互联网对物流业全要素生产率影响的门槛效应研究

作者:优质期刊论文发表网  来源:www.yzqkw.com  发布时间:2019/9/16 9:23:35  

摘要:现代社会经济的快速发展逐渐由知识和技术因素决定,而互联网成为知识传播和技术发展的代表性元素,逐渐成为能够促进经济发展和全要素生产率增长的关键性指标。互联网在达到一定条件时能够促进物流业全要素生产率的发展,而这些需具备的条件就形成了互联网促进全要素生产率增长的“门槛”。在跨越“门槛”后,互联网对物流业全要素生产率产生了影响,发生“门槛效应”。因此,基于“门槛”视角研究互联网对物流业全要素生产率的影响,以及在相应条件下的“门槛水平”,互联网水平持续发展对加快地区物流业发展方式转变和实现我国物流业可持续发展具有理论意义和现实意义。

本文借鉴相关研究文献,以互联网理论、全要素生产率理论及门槛效应理论为理论基础,首先分析国内外对于物流业全要素生产率的研究状况,其次,研究了物流业全要素生产率的影响因素,最后分析了互联网对物流业全要生产率的具体影响机制,以及互联网对物流业全要素生产率影响的门槛效应。借助相关统计软件Stata14.0验证互联网与物流业全要素生产率影响的门槛效应,并通过计算得出两个门槛值。计算过程中,首先选取各省份面板数据,其次以相关理论为基础构建门槛效应模型,因为选取的门槛水平是各地区经济发展状况的评价标准以及制定政策措施的理论依据,因此将网民人口比例作为门槛变量,最后运用DEA数据包络分析法计算出各个省份的2006—2015年的物流业全要素生产率数值和技术进步,技术效率数值,运用Stata14.0检验各省份互联网对本省份物流业全要素生产率影响的门槛效应,最后给出实证分析结论。

研究发现:互联网对物流业全要素生产率产生重要影响,并且对物流业全要素生产率存在双重门槛效应,采用网民人口比例作为门槛值,近年来,各个省份的互联网水平不断提高,跨越网民人口比例门槛值的省份数逐渐增加;不同层次的网民人口比例对各省份物流业全要素生产率增长的影响存在差异:当网民人口比例低于30.5%时,互联网对物流业全要素生产率增长有微弱的影响,当网民人口比例大于第一门槛值30.5%时,互联网对物流业全要素生产率增长影响显著增加,当网民人口比例大于第二门槛值41.2%时,互联网对物流业全要素生产率不如第一门槛值时显著,物流业全要素生产率还受到城镇化、开放度、基础设施、人力资本、市场化等因素的影响。最后依据定性与定量的研究结果结合中国的实际情况给出了“建设普惠互联网”、“加快物流业层面‘互联网+’战略的落地”以及加快推进“一带一路建设”等对策建议。

Modern economic development is determinedby knowledge and technology factors,and the Internet has become arepresentative element of knowledge dissemination and technologydevelopment,and has gradually become a key indicator to promote economicdevelopment and total factor productivity growth.Under certain conditions,theInternet can show the positive role of promoting the total factor productivityof logistics industry,and these necessary conditions form the"threshold" for the Internet to promote the growth of total factorproductivity.After crossing the "threshold",the Internet has animpact on the total factor productivity of the logistics industry,resulting inthe "threshold effect".Therefore,it is of theoretical and practicalsignificance to study the impact of the Internet on total factor productivityof the logistics industry from the perspective of "threshold",the "thresholdlevel" under the corresponding conditions,the sustainable development ofthe Internet level,the acceleration of the transformation of regional logisticsdevelopment mode and the realization of sustainable development of China'slogistics industry.

Related research literature,thispaper,according to the theory of the Internet and the threshold effecttheory,total factor productivity theory as the theoretical basis,first analysisof the total factor productivity for the logistics industry at home and abroadresearch situation,secondly,studied the influence factors of logistics totalfactor productivity,finally analyzes the Internet to the logistics industry allspecific influence mechanism to productivity,and on the impact of Internet ontotal factor productivity of logistics industry in the thresholdeffect.Relevant statistical software Stata14.0 was used to verify the thresholdeffect of the influence of Internet and total factor productivity of logisticsindustry,and two threshold values were obtained.The process,firstly, theprovinces panel data,on the basis of related theory to construct thresholdeffect model,because the selection of threshold level is the regional economicdevelopment of the theoretical basis of the evaluation standard and formulatepolicies and measures will therefore netizen population as thresholdvariable,and using the data envelopment analysis DEA,calculate the variousprovinces in 2006-2015 of the total factor productivity of logistics industryin the numerical and technological progress,technical efficiency values,usingStata14.0 inspection the provinces on the Internet to this province logisticsindustry on the impact of total factor productivity threshold effect,theempirical analysis conclusion is given.

The study found that:the Internet has an impacton the total factor productivity of the logistics industry,and there is adouble threshold effect on the total factor productivity of the logisticsindustry.Different levels of the netizen population of each province logisticsindustry the impact of total factor productivity growth differences:when thenetizen population proportion less than 30.5%,the Internet has a weak effect onlogistics total factor productivity growth,30.5% when the rate of population ofInternet users is greater than the value of the first threshold,the Internetimpact on logistics total factor productivity growth increasedsignificantly,when the population of Internet users is greater than thethreshold value of 41.2%,the Internet to the logistics total factorproductivity is better than the first threshold value,the logistics industrytotal factor productivity is urbanization,openness,marketization ofinfrastructure,human capital,the influence of such factors.Finally,based on thequalitative and quantitative research results and in combination with theactual situation of China,the paper puts forward some suggestions,such as"the construction of inclusive Internet","accelerating theimplementation of the 'Internet +' strategy in the logistics industry" and"strengthening.

关键词:互联网;物流业全要素生产率增长;门槛效应

internet;total factor productivity growthin logistics industry;threshold effect

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