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OFDI与工资水平对就业的影响研究——基于我国省际面板数据的分析

作者:优质期刊论文发表网  来源:www.yzqkw.com  发布时间:2019/9/16 9:38:43  

摘要:中国对外直接投资(Outward Foreign DirectInvestment,以下简称OFDI )在全球外国直接投资中的影响力和规模逐年扩大,根据《2017年度中国对外直接投资统计公报》,2017年OFDI存量18090.4亿美元,同比2016年增长近25%,一跃升至全球第二;OFDI流量为1582.9亿美元,且近三年来OFDI流量一直高于FDI流量。尽管世界贸易往来更加频繁,但贸易争端问题一直不断,贸易摩擦也日益激烈,尤其是2018年中美贸易冲突再一次引人思考,贸易保护主义的回流是否真的能刺激经济发展,解决失业问题。OFDI作为资本要素的对外流出,它必定影响着与劳动力要素相关的变量和配置效率,而就业就作为中国经济发展中的民生之本与之息息相关。生产决定分配,劳动力的工资水平不仅是人力资本的一种体现还是劳动力要素一定程度上的价格表现,工资水平的高低直接影响就业数量的增减。在这一背景下,OFDI如何作用于就业,扩大OFDI活动是否能够缓解当前紧张的就业现状呢?工资水平在这段关系中又扮演着怎样的角色呢?

针对以上所述,本文进行了OFDI与工资水平对就业的影响研究。首先,文章交代了选题背景及其意义,同时还将研究方法及其主要内容和框架进行了阐述,将其创新与不足得以体现;其次,梳理了国内外的文献研究现状并进行了文献述评;再次,对我国OFDI、工资水平与就业的发展与现状进行了分析;然后,探讨了OFDI与工资水平对就业的影响机理并提出了研究假设;最后,以2007-2016年中国30个省、自治区、直辖市的省际面板数据作为研究样本,基于中介效应和调节效应的视角,构建了OFDI、工资水平与就业的中介效应和调节效应模型,对中国OFDI、工资水平与就业关系进行深入研究并进行了回归分析与检验,得出研究结论。

研究结果表明:OFDI对就业具有直接正向作用效应,扩大OFDI能相对缓解一定的就业压力。在OFDI对就业的效应影响研究中,工资水平这个中介变量对就业产生了部分中介负效应,但其对就业的挤出效应较小,总体上OFDI依旧是就业创造效应。同时在工资水平这个调节变量的作用下,OFDI与就业关系的方向被显著影响,工资水平的提升并不能拉动就业且OFDI也对就业产生了一定程度的抑制作用。除此之外,根据研究结论,进一步提高我国OFDI水平以及控制工资水平的过快增长能更好地降低就业压力以及缓解就业难的问题,彰显了本文的现实意义与价值。

The influence and scale of China's outwardforeign direct investment (OFDI) in global FDI are expanding year by year.According to China's Offshore Direct Investment Statistics Bulletin of 2017,the stock of OFDI in 2017 is 1809.04 billion US dollars, up nearly 25% from2016, jumping to the second place in the world. The flow of OFDI is 158.29billion US dollars, although within 15 years. For the first time, the flow ofOFDI declined but still ranked third in the world, especially in the past threeyears and OFDI traffic has been higher than FDI traffic. Despite the more prosperousand frequent trade exchanges in the world, trade disputes and trade frictionshave been on the rise. Especially in 2018, the Sino-US trade conflict onceagain attracts people to think whether the return of trade protectionism canreally stimulate economic development and solve the problem of unemployment. Asan outflow of capital factors, OFDI must affect the variables and allocationefficiency related to labor factors and employment is closely related to it asthe foundation of people's livelihood in China's economic development.Production decides distribution. The wage level of labor force is not only areflection of human capital, but also the price performance of labor factors toa certain extent. The wage level directly affects the increase or decrease ofemployment. In this context, how does OFDI work on employment? Can expandingOFDI activities alleviate the current tense employment situation? What roledoes wage play in this relationship?

In view of the above, this paper studiesthe impact of OFDI and wage levels on employment through the following parts.In the first part, the introduction mainly explains the background andsignificance of the topic and elaborates the research methods, the maincontents and the framework, so as to reflect its innovation and shortcomings.The second part is to present the research status of literature at home andabroad and publish literature reviews for in-depth discussion. The third partis the analysis of the development and current situation of employment by OFDIand wage level in China. The development and current situation of these threevariables are analyzed respectively, which paves the way for the followingempirical research to a certain extent. The fourth part is the analysis of themechanism of the influence of OFDI and wage level on employment. The impactmechanism of OFDI on employment and wage level on employment are analyzedrespectively. The analysis and the analysis of the influence mechanism of OFDIand wage level on employment provide theoretical support for the researchhypothesis and also lay a solid theoretical foundation for the next empiricalanalysis and subsequent results.

Based on the panel data of 30 provinces,autonomous regions and municipalities from 2007 to 2016, this paper makes anin-depth study on the relationship between China's OFDI, wage level andemployment from the perspective of intermediary effect and adjustment effect.The results show that OFDI has a direct positive effect on employment, andexpanding OFDI can alleviate employment pressure relatively. In the study ofthe effect of OFDI on employment,wage level has some mediating negative effectson employment as an intermediary variable, but its crowding-out effect onemployment is small. Overall, OFDI is still an employment creation effect. Atthe same time, under the influence of wage level, the direction of therelationship between OFDI and employment is significantly affected. Theincrease of wage level can not promote employment, and OFDI also has a certaindegree of inhibition on employment.According to the relevant conclusions of theempirical test, some suggestions to improve our country's OFDI and wage levelare put forward to better reduce employment pressure and ease employmentdifficulties, which highlights the practical significance and value of thispaper.

关键词:OFDI;工资水平;就业;中介效应;调节效应

OFDI;Wage Level; Employment; MediationEffect; Moderating Effect

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